riskforecasting.net
Current research
This page highlights current research work on improving risk management as part of a PhD at Cranfield University. The research aims to contribute towards understanding about the use of risk analysis by emergency planners in reconciling national and local priorities. This is not a well discussed topic in literature.
Why this research?
Hagman and Cavelty (2012) adopt a position that while risk registers could have value by using a scientific, apolitical approach to cost benefit analysis, they conclude a series of problems with them. Notably the tendency to fixate around financial loss/impact, but also the presentation of what may be quite uncertain ‘guesstimates’ as something with a solid legitimacy.
The problem of presenting uncertainty or knowledge is one which Terje Aven has made repeatedly, most recently in his excellent book ‘Risk Science‘, where he suggests that completeness of knowledge should also be an element of ana analysis.
Hiscock and Jones (2017) are really the only people to have looked at the local risk management element of the National Risk Register. A modest survey of 14 key stakeholders in East Anglia, it found relatively little understanding or awareness of the NRR. This cascaded in to planning efforts not really being as coordinated or effective as they could be.
Initial Survery
This survey has received ethical approval from Cranfield university. It is intended to create a snapshot of the understanding and use of the National Risk Register at a local level and to form the first stage of recruiting participants for interviews and an emergency planning ‘serious game’.